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Looking forward to Canada’s demographics in 2041

Looking forward to Canada’s demographics in 2041

Learn about the present demographic trends in Canada in the report from Statistics Canada and how the nation is projected to appear ethnoculturally in 2041. Twenty years may bring about a lot of change in the world, and Canada is no exception to this rule. On September 8, Statistics Canada published their forecast for the country's demographics in 2041.

These predictions, which are based on information from the 2016 Census of Population, offer some important insights into where current data and statistics project the nation to be from a demographic perspective in about 19 years. In 2041, the proportion of immigrants in Canada's population will be at an all-time high. 

Immigration is anticipated to be one of Canada's main demographic drivers during the following decades, continuing a trend that started more than two decades ago. In light of this, Statistics Canada predicts that between 2016 and 2041, the immigrant population in Canada may increase by a range between 7.2% and 12.1%.

StatsCan forecasts that the proportion of immigrants in Canada, which was 21.9% in 2016, might increase to between 29.1% and 34.0% in the following almost 19 years, which would be the greatest historical level in the nation's 155-year history. If current trends continue, by 2041, immigrants and their offspring who were born in Canada will make up half of the country's population.

According to StatsCan's reference scenario, "immigrants and their Canadian-born offspring" may make up 52.4% of the nation's overall population by 2041, in accordance with the projected growth in Canada's immigrant population. When Canada's population was estimated at 14.4 million in 2016, the same group made up 40% of that total, representing an increase of 12.4%.

Additionally, the above percentage (52.4%) may only be in the middle of a range of potential results. In reality, it has been hypothesised that the real percentage may be as high as 54.3% (with a low estimate of 49.8%). This indicates that there may be between 23.7 and 25.9 million immigrants and their Canadian-born children living in Canada (according to the projected Canadian population of 47.7 million in 2041).

About 2 in 5 Canadians will belong to a racialized group by 2041. The colored population in Canada might total between 16.4 and 22.3 million people, according to StatsCan's analysis of the country's anticipated demographics by 2041. According to this estimate, colored people will make up between 38.2% and 43% of Canada's overall population, an increase from 22.2% in 2016. (when the number of people in this category was 8 million).

The term "racialized" population, as used here, refers to "persons belonging to a visible minority group," as determined by the "visible minority group" variable, which has been a component of data gathered through Statistics Canada's Census of Population since 1996. One in four Canadians will be born in Asia or Africa by 2041. Even more specifically, predictions indicate that by the year 2041, 1 in 4 Canadians will have been born in either Asia or Africa.

In 2041, it is projected that there would be 9.9 to 13.9 million persons born in Africa or Asia, making up between 23.1% and 26.9% of the overall population of Canada. This outcome would be a considerable improvement.

Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver would continue to have a high concentration of immigrants. By 2041, it has been predicted that Canada's demographic composition will shift significantly. Immigrant choices on where in the nation they will choose to settle are one factor that is anticipated to remain constant.

Pressures on the property market and the growth of urban infrastructure are just a couple of the main reasons for this continuing. Whatever the specifics, the general consensus is that Canada's present situation is not anticipated to alter in the future. The most important finding from this section of StatsCan's analysis is that most immigrants to Canada will continue to reside in Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs), and three cities—Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver—will continue to have high immigrant populations.

What all of this means is that Canada is a nation of contrasts both now and in the future.

In general, it is believed that the anticipated increase in immigration to Canada will, over time, widen existing ethnocultural divides across the nation.

In nine Ontario or central/western Canada CMAs, for instance, the presence of racialized people is anticipated to rise generally across the nation but will still be significantly higher than the national average (over 41%): Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary, Abbotsford-Mission, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Ottawa-Gatineau (Ontario portion), Windsor, and Regina. 

On the other hand, the inverse reality is anticipated to manifest in eastern Canada, Quebec, rural communities across the nation, and the majority of other CMAs in each province (not mentioned above), all of which are locations where the proportion of racialized people projects to be below the national average.

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