Express Entry One year after the FSWP candidate was invited

On December 23, 2020, candidates for the Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP) were drawn from the Canada Express Entry pool for the last time.

Most of us had no idea at the time that it would signal the start of a temporary halt in Canada Express Entry invitations to FSWP candidates.

Since its inception in 1967, the FSWP has been Canada's most popular avenue for low-income immigrants. The Canadian Experience Class was launched by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (CICC) in 2008 to complement the FSWP (CEC).

The CEC's goal is to create a specific immigration path for persons who have worked in Canada (namely international students and temporary foreign workers). The Federal Skilled Crafts Program (FSTP) was established by CICC in 2013 to provide an immigration pathway for skilled trade professionals.

To coordinate these three programs, CICC established Express Entry in 2015. Anyone who met the requirements of a Canada Express Entry-managed program could construct a profile and earn a CRS score based on human capital indicators like age, education, English and/or French language skills, work experience, and Canadian experience, among other things.

CICC would send invitations to the highest-scoring candidates every two weeks to apply for permanent residence in Canada.

The justification for Canada Express Entry was that it would allow IRCC to process applications more rapidly (because they only had to process those who had been invited, rather than assessing every single application), and it would provide new immigrants with a greater chance to integrate into the Canadian economy (since CICC was skimming the top to invite the highest-scoring candidates).

FSWP candidates received the most Express Entry invites between 2015 and the start of the epidemic. They received nearly half of all invites in 2019, followed by CEC candidates. All of this came to an end in 2021.

The Immigration and Refugee Commission (CICC) started 2021 with a strategy for achieving its Immigration Levels Plan goal of landing 401,000 new permanent residents by the end of the year.

The proposal called for a larger number of temporary residents in Canada during the epidemic to be converted to permanent residents. 

The rationale for the plan was that in the face of COVID disruptions like travel restrictions and other roadblocks that may prevent overseas candidates from completing the permanent residence process, focusing on transitioning those already in Canada was the best bet for meeting the 401,000-newcomer goal by 2021.

For the most of this year, the plan comprised shifting away from considering Canada Express Entry

Candidates and instead focusing on inviting CEC candidates, including the historic February 13 draw that invited all 27,332 CEC candidates in the pool at the time (almost six times more than the previous record for invitations in one draw).

The idea also included implementing a one-time special public policy that would allow up to 90,000 vital employees and international graduates to apply for permanent residency in Canada.

One has the right to dispute the merits of the decision to exclude FSWP candidates from Express Entry lotteries for the next year.

In fact, as a variety of developments continue to unfold, such as the worldwide pandemic scenario, CICC's future policy decisions and operating capacity, Canada's labour market picture, and the economic integration of Express Entry immigrants, we will have plenty of opportunities to argue the decision's merits.

To summarize, we will most likely need years to thoroughly examine the consequences of this choice. Nonetheless, based on the information we have today, it is worthwhile to consider the advantages and disadvantages of the option.

The advantages of excluding FSWP candidates

IRCC is on track to meet its newcomer goal for the year, as it presently welcomes over 45,000 new permanent residents each month and has welcomed over 360,000 immigrants in the first eleven months of 2021.

As a result, CICC will claim that making the difficult decision to exclude FSWP candidates allowed it to get a higher level of permanent residence in a difficult operating environment.

Another advantage is that, according to Statistics Canada, persons with Canadian work experience integrate effectively into the labour market once they become permanent residents.

In addition to domestic job experience, individuals can enhance their language abilities and network while in Canada as temporary residents, which will help them find work after they arrive.

Third, throughout the epidemic, Canada has had labour shortages, and CICC's concentration on Canadian applicants has allowed the country to take a more targeted approach to alleviate shortages, particularly in critical occupations. 

The disadvantages of excluding FSWP candidates

On the other hand, one could claim that IRCC was able to meet its 401,000-newcomer goal while also inviting FSWP candidates. The reason for this is that there is typically a one-year or longer lag between when an FSWP candidate is accepted and when they physically arrive in Canada.

 As a result, in the second half of the year, IRCC could have started issuing Canada Express Entry invites to FSWP candidates while simultaneously landing as many in-Canada applications as possible to meet its 2021 levels plan to target.

In reality, according to an internal IRCC memo, the department considered this alternative, but it is unclear why they did not pursue it.

The decision has also harmed transparency and trust between FSWP candidates and the CICC. The Canadian government and CICC pride themselves on being as open and transparent as possible, yet FSWP candidates have received little information about CICC's Canada Express Entry plans beyond 2021.

This is significant since many FSWP hopefuls applied to the Express Entry pool in earnest this year, hoping to be chosen, but were turned down. In other words, CICC invites them to the restaurant but will not offer them food.

Perhaps a better strategy would have been for CICC to be more transparent about its goals, allowing FSWP candidates to consider other options.

Because language test scores are only valid for two years and Educational Competency Assessments (ECA) are valid for five years, the choice to omit them may have a detrimental impact on some candidates.

In the big scheme of things, retaking a language exam or filing for another ECA isn't the end of the world, but CICC should have given FSWP candidates advance warning so they could avoid any potential delays in their quest for permanent residence in Canada.

The IRCC weakening the policy basis for Express Entry in the first place is the third disadvantage. CICC was proud of the evidence-based methodology utilized to develop the Comprehensive Ranking System when Express Entry was launched in 2015. (CRS).

The CRS, according to the CICC, was created by many years of longitudinal data on immigrant labour market performance gathered and evaluated by Statistics Canada.

As a result, the CRS score was created to reward candidates who are younger, have more education, work experience, language abilities, and Canadian experience, as well as those who may have other advantages such as a Canadian job offer or siblings who live in Canada.

Looking forward

Given IRCC's lack of transparency regarding its Canada Express Entry plans, it's impossible to say when invitations to FSWP candidates will resume. There are a few things to keep in mind, though.

First, since September, CICC has started eliminating CEC candidates from draws in order to reduce its backlog. Before admitting FSWP, CEC, or Federal Skilled Trades Program candidates again, the agency has stated that it aims to cut Express Entry backlogs in half. CICC could be in this position by the first half of 2022, based on its recent application processing pace.

Another important factor to consider is that CICC is critical to Canada's economic prosperity. The department helps permanent citizens from other countries come to Canada, which helps the country's population, labour force, and economic growth.

However, the epidemic has hampered international arrivals, contributing to Canada's slowest population growth in over a century.

Furthermore, for a variety of reasons, including a lack of fresh workers from abroad, the country is experiencing some of the greatest job vacancy levels on record. As a result, resuming FSWP draws will be critical to Canada's economic growth goals.

Despite the fact that COVID cases are on the rise around the world, there are currently no Canadian government travel restrictions banning FSWP applicants with COPRs from entering the country.

And, as previously stated, it takes an average of one year from the time an FSWP receives an invitation to the time they arrive in Canada, so pandemic uncertainty should not be the primary reason for continuing to decline FSWP invitations because none of us knows what the world has in store for us in a year or so.

To summarize, there appears to be a compelling rationale for CICC to begin FSWP candidate invitations in 2022.

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